I agree there are a lot of complexities and nuance to take into account. The code I got from ChatGPT works and is useful to me personally, but it is no where near production-grade code.
I think there are ways to get ChatGPT to write better quality code through more fine-grained prompts and more advanced prompt techniques like prompt-chaining.
Personally, though, I don't think the software industry will change as quickly as you might think. The only way I know to get ChatGPT or Copilot or any of these LLMs to write quality software that you can ship is through precise prompts crafted by an expert programmer.
In my mind, this points more towards enhanced productivity and new natural-language programming paradigms. We're a long way from reaching AI that can automate away huge swaths of the software industry.
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